Looking at the Facts...
Updated May 31, 2010 As of March 14, 2010 the U.S. government has issued a Mexico travel warning now which supersedes the Travel Alert dated February 22, 2010. The warning has been renewed on May 6, 2010. The Mexico travel “warning” was issued based on one event this week in Ciudad Juarez where there has been a history of drug related violence. There were 3 murders in the same day that Houston, Texas had 9 and these were not drug war related. In other words this “Warning” the U.S. is sending out to Universities and other travel site is really unfounded at least in the states of Baja and Baja California Sur.
According to the U.S Department of State “Travel Warnings are issued to describe long-term, protracted conditions that make a country dangerous or unstable.”
Almost all of the events that have occurred in Mexico also occurred in tourist destinations in the US during the same time period. The war between the drug traffickers, each other and the government has not targeted tourists at this time. Travelers should remain alert to their surroundings. Without a doubt, the world wide economic situation has added to petty crimes in tourist areas world wide.
Oscar Escobedo, Baja California's Secretary of Tourism, says it is illogical to change the alert for Tijuana due to events in Ciudad Juarez. "Let's say something happened in Austin, Texas and you would have that same reaction for California. It's thousands of miles away. And what happens in one town doesn't mean it happens all over the country. So I don't think it is justified,” As a tourist you should of course be careful and aware of where you are in any country these days. Due to the economic crisis everywhere in the world there are bound to be at least more petty crimes if not more violence.
First and foremost, let us remember that more Americans will visit Mexico by noon tomorrow than will visit London in a year. A vast majority enjoy that visit without incident. Most foreign destinations, with the exclusion of Canada, are more dangerous to visit for Americans than is Mexico on an incident per visit ratio. With more than 50,000 Americans vacationing here per day and another million that live here, there are bound to be some reported incidents.
Mexico is dangerous – if you work for the Cartel!
Looking at the statistics, Tijuana is one of the more dangerous cities in Mexico, but it would be in the lower third of large US cities in terms of violent crime. Philadelphia, about the same size as TJ, has roughly the same crime statistics. Most of homicides in the Mexican border areas have been inter drug cartel exclusively. If you deduct the gangland related murders from the statistics, visiting Mexico is safer than visiting most US cities. New Orleans, the most dangerous city in the US, is about 3 times more dangerous than TJ.
In late 2007 there were a significant number of stories in the US press regarding incidents involving Mexican travelers, particularly in Baja California ('norte' for the rookies) and that the government is ambivalent or even complicit in these attacks. By late 2009 the positive actions of both local and federal authorities has made the region safer for tourists again. But, please read on, this statement is not without caveats...
Although the situation with drug cartels and the government crackdown remains active, no US citizens have yet been injured in these actions in Baja California or Baja California Sur.
Mexico has become more aggressive in pursuing drug traffickers. This has resulted in some gun battles in the last 6 months of 2009. Neither any or innocent parties were injured in these events.
Mexico has statistically become the world leader in kidnapping for profit. To a great extent, the focus of this is in Mexico City. Mexican corporate execs, family members and even doctors employed by corporate hospitals have been abducted for the anticipated ransom. Kidnapping and kidnapping attempts have occurred in both states, of locals of profitable targets. It appears only one of these appeared to be a tourist in Tijuana. As a tourist, kidnappers have no idea what you might be worth in random. Take off the Rolex before you visit, don't appear overly flamboyant and enjoy Baja.
Travelers should always take precautions against thefts of personal belongings when traveling in their native country or abroad, as thieves everywhere find tourists an easy mark. Just as everywhere in the world during these economic times are tough, petty crime is on the rise here in Baja.